I'm not playing devil's advocate, but...... Lisa Foster January 3rd, 2007

I think everyone has made some very valid points. To survive, one must prepare. A certain amount of foresight is essential. If the world can no longer rely on the source of energy that has been available, then a full-scale change of life must be the answer. The survivors will be those most adaptable. However, I don't necessarily see the answer as moving to a warmer place.

What are the options? The population of the earth can't really go back to hunting and gathering because there aren't enough resources left for everyone to gather. We can't all burn coal/wood because at our current population level we would deforest the entire planet in virtually no time at all, meaning that the entire ecosystem would collapse. I don't think there is one answer to the question/problem.

One possible scenario is this: Tear down the stick-built houses and recycle the resources. Build very energy efficient earth-bag houses. The walls are 18" thick or more and the temperature in the winter and summer varies little. Utilize some of the technology that is apparent in ancient Persia. Windcatchers were built into roofs to catch the wind and cool the homes. Cob with limestone coating is very durable in almost any climate in the US. Supplement power needs with solar
in the summer to whatever degree is available and wind in the winter when the wind blows almost every day. Use cisterns to collect water for at least irrigation needs for farming.

What changes would we need to make on a community scale? I think you'd see the return of enclave communities. Prior to about 1970, almost every small town had a self-sustaining economy--feed stores for livestock, bank, grocery store, gas station, etc.--and I think that would return. For people to survive, one person can't possibly do everything. You would need some to provide every aspect of daily needs--grow orchards, large farms, have a dairy. This type of economy can support about 1000 to 1500 people in an area. The days of the very large cities would be gone. People would need to return to the general way of life prior to the highly mobile society we have become, at least until a source of energy could be created to replace oil-based economy. Everyone would keep livestock--at least one horse--and learn to use the byproducts--manure for fertilizer and compost. There would be a return of traditional skills like quilting and rug-making, baking, etc. People survived very nicely prior to reliance on oil, it was just harder work.

In summary, what do I predict? People will have to become less isolated and relearn skills of survival and community. Communities will return to enclave status where people can get what they need to survive without getting too far from home. People will begin to build dwellings that can be supported without high energy demands, and demands can be met with solar and wind power. There will undoubtedly be a change in mentality from what one would like to have to what one needs to survive. It's possible that things will go back to being shipped by rail. It's the most economical way to move a lot of goods over a large area. Will coal-burning engines come back? Possibly. We are already seeing some of the subtle signs of change now and 20 years may be optimistic.

Lisa